FORWARD: Since this blog was originally written the efficiencies involved with turning petroleum into miles by way of generation and electric vehicle has improved dramatically. It’s at the point where you could be burning actual live dinosaurs and still get the equivalent EPA rating of over 100MPG. Introducing any renewable energy into the mix makes that number increase even further. So, ignore that part of the original. The rest stands. On with the Blog…
Here’s Part Two of the story.
As you no doubt remember from last week we are the victims of a conspiracy so far-reaching that every last one of us are being duped. I imagine none of you have slept a wink since. The end results of this conspiracy will be the environmental destruction of the planet, the removal of the United States as a world power and the reduction of your income to something less than that of the average citizen in Malawi. The conspirators in this scam are going to be made richer than imaginable in the process and you are going be left choking on bad air.
It all comes down to the number of vehicles out on the road.
There are about 250 million cars, trucks, and buses in the United States. They operate at an average efficiency – that is the percentage of their fuel that is converted into motion – of about 18%. For each gallon, 128 ounces, of gas you put in some 105 ounces are wasted. Wow, that’s a lot. This fleet, factoring in the trucks and buses, gets an average fuel economy of about 10 MPG. All told, they slurp up nearly 108 billion gallons of gas and diesel every year. That means we’re stuffing the combustion products of 88 billion gallons of fuel directly into the atmosphere without a single drop being used for anything. What a waste.
Now, let’s hypothetically convert every last one of those vehicles to pure electric power. Every day you plug in your car and when you wake up in the morning the batteries are topped up and you are ready for your day on the road. This has just got to be so good for the planet! No exhaust! Quiet running!
And very efficient! This is the point at which you should hear that screeching noise that is the sound of a needle being pulled across a record. That means Stop.
Let’s talk a bit about efficiency. The electric motors at use in cars are around 90% efficient. That means that of the power input to make the motor go around only 10% is wasted as heat. The rest goes to making the car move. Here’s where the “Environmental” part of the lie kicks in. It goes something like “90% efficiency is so much better than 18% efficiency if we all drive electric cars we’ll save the planet.”
Let’s start with 90% efficiency and walk backwards from the electric motor into the heart of the lie.
The motor (90% efficient) has to get its power from someplace. Yeah, from batteries you dope. Exactly. But batteries aren’t 100% efficient either. In fact the current record – in a lab mind you and not in the real world – is only 77%. That’s the percentage of power that’s in a battery which you can use. Then we have to charge the batteries. The batteries will not accept all the electricity you pump into them. Some is dissipated as heat. But not much. The Lithium ion batteries that power the Nissan Leaf are about 90% efficient on charging. Then there’s the charger itself which is also not too bad for this kind of battery. A typical value is between 75%-90%. Let’s be kind and use the 90% number. This means that 90% of the energy the charger takes from the grid is output into the battery. Next, is the grid itself. These are the wires and transformers and capacitors that put the electricity into the plug on your wall. You guessed it, it’s not 100% efficient. But it’s pretty good. Something like 93% of the electricity that leaves the power station gets to the plug in your wall. Finally we arrive at the generating station where fuel gets converted into electricity. This is the worst step in the process and is only 35% efficient.
Let’s put it all together. We’re going to start out by assuming that the basic configuration of what we drive isn’t going to change very much. Truck drivers are still going to drive trucks. Spa goers are still going to drive SUVs. Guys are still going to drive red convertibles. And bus riders are still going to ride the bus. That means the amount of energy required to move that fleet is going to stay the same – the equivalent of 20 billion gallons of fuel.
Now, apply our chain of efficiency to that energy requirement. It looks like 20 ÷ 0.35 ÷ 0.93 ÷ 0.90 ÷ 0.90 ÷ 0.77 ÷ 0.90 = x where x is the amount of fuel needed to start with.
Hang on…. x = 109 billion gallons of fuel. That’s more than we’re using now!
Yup. If we all ran out and bought electric cars we would actually end up worse off than if we just kept driving the gas-guzzling, smog-belching, steel behemoths we are riding around in now. Remember we gave the best case efficiencies, that ‘109’ figure is at the optimistic end of the range – the realistic number is 148.
To generate all that extra electricity we are going to have to build new power plants, run new transmission lines, and start popping out batteries like pastel candies at a Pez festival. All of those new power plants are going to be powered by natural gas, oil, and, most of all, by coal. Coal, the single dirtiest fuel known to man. The end result of all these electric cars is just to move more of your money into the hands of the utility, oil, coal and automobile companies that already get so much. The planet and you will be worse off as a result. This is the place where you should get pissed off and say something like “We’ve been duped!”
The optimists among you are thinking: We’ll just use solar and wind. They’re clean. Yeah. And unavailable and insufficient to provide anything more than a tiny fraction of our transportation needs. The sun only shines, at best, half the time. It’s not always windy.
The pessimists among you are probably thinking: We are so screwed. You are closer to the truth with gas prices starting to edge up towards $4/gal again.
But, I, the realist who thinks he could be your King, know how to fix it all. It is so simple.
Beginning on Inauguration Day, January 3, 2013, I, as the sole member of the 113th Congress and effective King am going to start. And you are going to love it.
First thing. No more new cars that use petroleum fuel. None, nada, zip. The age of the internal combustion engine will be over. Henceforward – which just sounds so kingly – all cars will be electric powered. Hey wait. You just said…. Please let me finish.
Second thing. An immediate end to all overseas military activity and a freeze on all new military weapons programs. Hey wait. Last week you said we were going to take over the world. Would you PLEASE let me finish.
Third thing. It’s time to break out the nukes.
Huh?
There is one, and only one, power source that would allow us to cut our emissions to zero, eliminate our addiction to foreign oil, increase the efficiency of our power system, and reduce the environmental impact of that system to a small area deep in the mountains of Nevada. That power source is nuclear energy.
To do this, and it will start as soon as I lower my right hand, we will draw upon the only entity in the world with the management experience for a project this size: namely, the United States Government. The U.S. Navy currently operates more nuclear reactors than any civilian utility. The military branches combined have a ton of unused land. That land is protected by the highest security available. We’re going to put the talent with the resources and just start building. Safe, secure, reliable: Nuclear Power (or ‘Nucular’ for those who voted for “W”).
Some of you may say that this would be expensive. Yup, but it will still be much cheaper in the long term than burning all the oil and then having to clean that mess up and build the nuke plants anyway. We’re going to standardize power plant design as the French have so successfully done. That will help keep costs down. And we are going to do it cleanly using reprocessed waste from older reactors and breeder technology to keep the environmental impact to a minimum.
We will keep building until the last coal/oil/gas fired power plant has been decommissioned – ten years. Every last one of you will be driving an electric car costing about 6¢ per mile and everybody who wants a job will have one.
On that fateful day, I or my successor will step to the podium, cut the symbolic ribbon, and throw the switch that ushers out the age of fossil fuel in America. We will turn to the camera and look to our audience and say: “To our overseas friends we can only say how sorry we are. We are now the ones with clean air and water. We have stepped up and done our part to save your world. Now it’s your turn.”
“By the way, we can give you a great deal on some nuclear reactors.”
At that point we will have so much experience building highly efficient nuke plants that we’ll be able to sell them for less than what a conventional power plant would cost. We could out Chinese the Chinese; out OPEC the, well you get it. By 2033 the world will be powered by American nuclear power plants, using American technology, and built by American workers. Our stuff will be the only game in town.
Then if some two-bit dictator decides to rattle his sabers we won’t have to send in the Marines. We can just log into their power stations’ Facebook accounts and turn off the lights. All the lights. All at once.
How’s that for a non-invasive strategy for world domination?
So, what about my MONEY?
I believe I said “you’ll be rich”. I don’t recall mentioning money.
From this one choice America’s balance of trade will once again be balanced. Anybody who wants a job that doesn’t involve asking “you want fries with that?” will have one. Our economy – along with your retirement – will be stable. Our leadership of the world will be based on us showing the way – and then going there first. Being “rich” can be measured with scales other than monetary. If you consider that the gift we will be giving to the generations after us is a planet that can actually be lived on, then that would make us the richest people of all time.
See you at the polls.